Projection Dashboard

Projected matchups · model-vs-market edges · season outlook

Game Projections

Matchup	Proj	Pick	Win%
NE @ SEA	19–26	SEA -6.8	69%
SF @ LAR	21–28	LAR -7.6	71%
ATL @ PIT	20–23	PIT -3.1	59%
BAL @ IND	23–27	IND -3.7	61%
BUF @ HOU	20–25	HOU -5.2	65%
CHI @ CAR	22–22	CHI -0.0	50%
CLE @ JAX	15–25	JAX -9.8	76%
NO @ DET	21–28	DET -7.3	70%
NYJ @ TEN	18–22	TEN -4.1	62%
TB @ CIN	25–26	CIN -0.6	52%
ARI @ LAC	21–25	LAC -4.2	62%
GB @ MIN	22–23	MIN -1.5	54%
MIA @ LV	21–20	MIA -0.9	53%
WAS @ PHI	21–25	PHI -4.2	62%
DAL @ NYG	23–26	NYG -2.5	57%
DEN @ KC	20–22	KC -1.9	56%

Market Edge

Matchup	Model	Vegas	Edge
ARI @ LAC	LAC -4.2	LAC -11.5	ARI +7.3
BAL @ IND	IND -3.7	BAL -3.5	IND +7.2
BUF @ HOU	HOU -5.2	BUF -1.5	HOU +6.7
DAL @ NYG	NYG -2.5	DAL -2.5	NYG +5.0
SF @ LAR	LAR -7.6	LAR -3.0	LAR +4.6
MIA @ LV	MIA -0.9	LV -3.0	MIA +3.9
NE @ SEA	SEA -6.8	SEA -3.5	SEA +3.3
GB @ MIN	MIN -1.5	GB -1.5	MIN +3.0

Projected Playoff Odds

top 15 · make playoffs

#	Team	Conf	Wins	Playoff %
1	SEA	NFC	12.0	94%
2	LAR	NFC	11.0	89%
3	HOU	AFC	11.0	88%
4	JAX	AFC	10.0	78%
5	DET	NFC	10.0	72%
6	IND	AFC	10.0	69%
7	NE	AFC	10.0	69%
8	BUF	AFC	10.0	66%
9	BAL	AFC	9.0	63%
10	PHI	NFC	9.0	57%
11	KC	AFC	9.0	56%
12	DEN	AFC	9.0	56%
13	TB	NFC	9.0	50%
14	GB	NFC	9.0	44%
15	MIN	NFC	9.0	42%

ranked by projected probability of reaching the playoffs

Projected Bracket

model playoff path

AFCto Super Bowl: HOU

Wild Card

Divisional

Conf Champ

1HOUbye

2NE56%

7BUF44%

3DEN51%

6IND49%

4BAL47%

5JAX53%

1HOU60%

5JAX40%

2NE59%

3DEN41%

1HOU65%

2NE36%

NFCto Super Bowl: SEA

Wild Card

Divisional

Conf Champ

1SEAbye

2DET62%

7MIN39%

3PHI58%

6GB42%

4TB37%

5LAR63%

1SEA59%

5LAR41%

2DET58%

3PHI42%

1SEA71%

2DET30%

Super Bowl

AFCHOU45%vsNFCSEA55%

Champion SEA

Super Bowl Odds

top 15 · win it all

#	Team	Conf	Wins	Reach SB	Win SB
1	SEA	NFC	12.0	36.1%	20.0%
2	HOU	AFC	11.0	25.8%	14.9%
3	LAR	NFC	11.0	25.3%	14.1%
4	JAX	AFC	10.0	15.4%	8.7%
5	IND	AFC	10.0	10.5%	5.3%
6	NE	AFC	10.0	9.8%	5.2%
7	BUF	AFC	10.0	9.8%	4.6%
8	DET	NFC	10.0	8.7%	3.5%
9	BAL	AFC	9.0	7.3%	3.2%
10	DEN	AFC	9.0	6.5%	3.2%
11	KC	AFC	9.0	6.1%	3.0%
12	PHI	NFC	9.0	5.7%	2.4%
13	GB	NFC	9.0	3.5%	1.3%
14	PIT	AFC	8.0	2.9%	1.3%
15	TB	NFC	9.0	3.6%	1.3%

ranked by projected probability of winning the Super Bowl

Fantasy · 2026

#	Player	Pos	Tm	FP
1	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	348
2	Drake Maye	QB	NE	332
3	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	320
4	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	318
5	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	315
6	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	310
7	Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	309
8	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	307
9	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	306
10	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	301
11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	301
12	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	298
13	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	297
14	Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	286
15	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	286