NFL Terminal — NFL projections, playoff odds & analytics

Division

AFC North

Team	2025 Rec	Win Div	Playoff
PIT	10-7	25%	40%
BAL	8-9	49%	63%
CIN	6-11	17%	29%
CLE	5-12	9%	17%

Record = 2025 final · odds = 2026 simulation

2026 Outlook

Projected wins

8.0p10 6.0 — p90 11.0

Round	Prob	Bar
Win division	25.1%
Make playoffs	40.0%
Divisional rd.	18.9%
Conf. champ.	7.3%
Super Bowl	2.8%
Win SB	1.1%

2026 Schedule · SOS

proj 8.3–8.7·rank 21 / 32

SOS Net

-0.10

Opp Off

-0.78

Opp Def

-0.69

Wk	Opp	Opp	Proj	Win%
1	vsATL	-1.5	+3.1	59%
2	@NE	+2.5	-4.8	36%
3	vsCIN	-1.7	+3.3	60%
4	@CLE	-3.6	+1.3	54%
5	vsIND	+2.9	-1.3	46%
6	@TB	-0.3	-2.0	44%
7	@NO	-3.3	+0.9	53%
8	vsCLE	-3.6	+5.3	65%
10	@CIN	-1.7	-0.7	48%
11	@PHI	+1.4	-3.7	39%
12	vsDEN	+1.4	+0.2	51%
13	vsHOU	+5.7	-4.1	38%
14	@JAX	+4.2	-6.6	31%
15	vsBAL	+1.3	+0.4	51%
16	vsCAR	-1.8	+3.5	60%
17	@TEN	-4.8	+2.4	57%
18	@BAL	+1.3	-3.6	39%

Quarterbacks · 4

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
QB	1st	Aaron Rodgers	6'2"	223	42	California
QB	2nd	Mason Rudolph	6'5"	235	30	Oklahoma State
QB	3rd	Will Howard	6'4"	236	24	Ohio State
QB	4th	Drew Allar	6'5"	228	22	Penn State

Running Backs · 8

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FB	1st	Riley Nowakowski	6'2"	249	23	Indiana
RB	1st	Jaylen Warren	5'8"	215	27	Oklahoma State
RB	2nd	Rico Dowdle	5'11"	215	27	South Carolina
RB	3rd	Kaleb Johnson	6'1"	224	22	Iowa
RB	4th	Eli Heidenreich	6'0"	206	22	Navy
RB	5th	Travis Homer	5'10"	211	27	Miami
RB	6th	Lew Nichols	5'10"	220	24	Central Michigan
RB	—	Max Hurleman	5'11"	200	24	Notre Dame; Colgate

Wide Receivers · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
WR	1st	DK Metcalf	6'4"	229	28	Mississippi
WR	2nd	Michael Pittman	6'4"	223	28	USC
WR	3rd	Germie Bernard	6'1"	204	22	Alabama
WR	4th	Roman Wilson	5'10"	186	24	Michigan
WR	5th	Ben Skowronek	6'3"	224	28	Notre Dame
WR	6th	Kaden Wetjen	5'9"	193	24	Iowa
WR	7th	Eli Heidenreich	6'0"	206	22	Navy
WR	8th	A.T. Perry	6'5"	205	26	Wake Forest
WR	9th	Brandon Johnson	6'2"	195	27	UCF
WR	11th	Cole Burgess	6'1"	198	26	SUNY-Cortland
WR	12th	Brandon Smith	6'2"	220	27	Iowa

Tight Ends · 6

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
TE	1st	Pat Freiermuth	6'5"	258	27	Penn State
TE	2nd	Darnell Washington	6'7"	264	24	Georgia
TE	3rd	Jaheim Bell	6'2"	241	24	Florida State
TE	—	Chamon Metayer	6'4"	255	23	Arizona State
TE	—	JJ Galbreath	6'4"	240	24	South Dakota
TE	—	Lake McRee	6'4"	243	23	USC

Offensive Line · 16

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
OL	—	Aiden Williams	6'5"	314	25	Duluth/University of Minnesota
OL	—	Brock Hoffman	6'4"	302	26	Virginia Tech; Coastal Carolina
OL	—	Broderick Jones	6'5"	311	25	Georgia
OL	—	Doug Nester	6'6"	306	25	West Virginia; Virginia Tech
OL	—	Dylan Cook	6'6"	305	28	Montana; Northern Montana State University
OL	—	Gennings Dunker	6'5"	319	23	Iowa
OL	—	Greg Crippen	6'4"	309	24	Michigan
OL	—	Jack Driscoll	6'5"	312	29	Auburn; UMass Amherst
OL	—	Lorenzo Thompson	6'6"	305	25	Rhode Island
OL	—	Mason McCormick	6'5"	315	26	South Dakota State
OL	—	Max Iheanachor	6'6"	321	22	Arizona State
OL	—	Ryan McCollum	6'5"	300	28	Texas A&M
OL	—	Spencer Anderson	6'5"	305	25	Maryland
OL	—	Steven Jones	6'5"	340	25	Oregon
OL	—	Troy Fautanu	6'4"	317	25	Washington
OL	—	Zach Frazier	6'3"	310	24	West Virginia

Interior D-Line · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LDE	1st	Derrick Harmon	6'4"	313	22	Oregon
NT	1st	Keeanu Benton	6'4"	309	24	Wisconsin
RDE	1st	Cameron Heyward	6'5"	295	37	Ohio State
LDE	2nd	Sebastian Joseph-Day	6'4"	310	31	Rutgers
NT	2nd	Yahya Black	6'5"	336	24	Iowa
RDE	2nd	Esezi Otomewo	6'5"	282	27	Minnesota
LDE	3rd	Logan Lee	6'5"	286	25	Iowa
RDE	3rd	Dean Lowry	6'6"	296	31	Northwestern
DL	—	Gabe Rubio	6'5"	321	22	Notre Dame
DL	—	Kevin Jobity Jr.	6'4"	300	22	Syracuse
DL	—	Kyler Baugh	6'2"	305	24	Minnesota; Houston Christian University

Edge Rushers · 6

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
SLB	1st	Alex Highsmith	6'4"	242	28	North Carolina-Charlotte
WLB	1st	T.J. Watt	6'4"	252	31	Wisconsin
SLB	2nd	Nick Herbig	6'2"	240	24	Wisconsin
WLB	2nd	Jack Sawyer	6'4"	260	24	Ohio State
WLB	3rd	K.J. Henry	6'4"	255	27	Clemson
DE	—	Anthony Goodlow	6'5"	283	25	Oklahoma State

Linebackers · 7

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LILB	1st	Malik Harrison	6'3"	247	28	Ohio State
RILB	1st	Patrick Queen	6'0"	232	26	LSU
LILB	2nd	Cole Holcomb	6'1"	240	29	North Carolina
RILB	2nd	Payton Wilson	6'4"	242	26	North Carolina State
RILB	3rd	Carson Bruener	6'1"	227	24	Washington
LB	—	Daylan Carnell	6'2"	225	23	Missouri
LB	—	Julius Welschof	6'6"	265	29	Charlotte

Defensive Backs · 17

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FS	1st	Jaquan Brisker	6'1"	204	27	Penn State
LCB	1st	Joey Porter Jr.	6'2"	193	25	Penn State
NB	1st	Jalen Ramsey	6'1"	211	31	Florida State
RCB	1st	Jamel Dean	6'1"	206	29	Auburn
SS	1st	DeShon Elliott	6'0"	210	29	Texas
LCB	2nd	Asante Samuel	5'10"	180	26	Florida State
NB	2nd	Brandin Echols	5'10"	179	28	Kentucky
RCB	2nd	Daylen Everette	6'1"	190	22	Georgia
SS	2nd	Sebastian Castro	5'11"	203	25	Iowa
FS	3rd	Robert Spears-Jennings	6'1"	205	22	Oklahoma
NB	3rd	Donte Kent	5'10"	189	24	Central Michigan
RCB	3rd	D'Shawn Jamison	5'9"	186	26	Texas
DB	—	Devan Boykin	5'10"	195	24	Indiana; N.C. State
DB	—	Doneiko Slaughter	6'0"	190	24	Arkansas; Tennessee
DB	—	Jack Henderson	6'2"	215	24	Minnesota; Southeastern Louisiana
DB	—	Makari Paige	6'4"	208	24	Michigan
DB	—	Tamon Lynum	6'2"	185	24	University of Pittsburgh - Bradford

Special Teams · 14

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
H	1st	Cam Johnston	5'11"	194	34	Ohio State
KR	1st	Kaden Wetjen	5'9"	193	24	Iowa
LS	1st	Christian Kuntz	6'1"	228	32	Duquesne
P	1st	Cam Johnston	5'11"	194	34	Ohio State
PK	1st	Chris Boswell	6'2"	185	35	Rice
PR	1st	Kaden Wetjen	5'9"	193	24	Iowa
KR	2nd	Eli Heidenreich	6'0"	206	22	Navy
PR	2nd	Donte Kent	5'10"	189	24	Central Michigan
KR	3rd	Jaylen Warren	5'8"	215	27	Oklahoma State
KR	4th	Donte Kent	5'10"	189	24	Central Michigan
KR	5th	Roman Wilson	5'10"	186	24	Michigan
KR	6th	D'Shawn Jamison	5'9"	186	26	Texas
K	—	Laith Marjan	6'2"	210	—	Kansas; South Alabama; East Carolina
LS	—	Cal Adomitis	6'2"	238	27	Pittsburgh

Team Profile

2025 · pct vs league

Pass Off	-0.01	#21	35%
Rush Off	0.01	#13	61%
Pass Def	0.03	#16	52%
Rush Def	0.01	#21	35%
Scoring Off	397	#15	55%
Scoring Def	387	#17	48%

EPA Trend

EPA/play by season · adj

NetOffDefDef: lower = better

Performance · 2025

10-7 · +10 pt diff

Metric	Off	Def	Rk
EPA / play (adj)	+0.015	+0.028	18
EPA / play (raw)	+0.015	+0.026	18/17
Pass EPA	-0.014	+0.028	21/16
Rush EPA	+0.006	+0.013	13/21
Points	397	387	—

Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.

Team Leaders

2025

Passing Yds	Rodgers3,322·Rudolph310
Rushing Yds	Warren958·Gainwell537·Johnson69
Receiving Yds	Metcalf850·Gainwell486·Freiermuth486
Sacks	Highsmith9.5·Herbig7.5·Watt7.0
Interceptions	Watt2·Dugger2·Echols2
Solo Tackles	Wilson74·Queen55·Ramsey51

Scoring Trend

2025 · pts/game

PPG For

23.4

15th in NFL

PPG Against

22.8

17th in NFL

Differential

+0.6

18th in NFL

— Points for— Points against

dots: W / L

Season Results

10-7 · 9-7 ATS

WinLossCoveredmargin per game

Situational Splits

2025 · record · pts

Split	Record	PF	PA
Venue
Home	6-3	23.4	21.4
Away	4-4	23.2	24.2
Competition
One-score (≤8)	7-3	25.3	23.4
vs Winning teams	3-5	20.1	25.9
Environment
Indoors	1-1	19.5	24.5
Outdoors	9-6	23.9	22.5
Grass	7-5	22.7	21.6
Turf	3-2	25	25.6
Cold (<40°F)	2-1	20.3	21.7

Recent Form · last 5

4-1 SU · 4-1 ATS · O4/U1

Wk	Opp	Score	Mgn	Spread	Total
18	vsBAL	W 26-24	+2	-4.5✓	41.5O
17	@CLE	L 6-13	-7	+4.5✗	35.5U
16	@DET	W 29-24	+5	-7.5✓	52.5O
15	vsMIA	W 28-15	+13	+3.0✓	42.5O
14	@BAL	W 27-22	+5	-5.5✓	43.5O

Betting Profile

2025

Straight up	10-7
ATS	9-7-156%
Over / Under	10-7 O-U
— ATS splits —
As favorite	5-3
As underdog	4-4
Home	6-3
Away	3-4

vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover

Cap & Roster Construction

APY $307M· gtd $406M

OFF $116M (38%)DEF $183M (60%)ST $8.3M

Group	Players	APY	% Total
QB	3	$27.4M	9%
RB	5	$15.9M	5%
WR	8	$58.2M	19%
TE	3	$14.4M	5%
DL	8	$35.2M	11%
EDGE	5	$61.5M	20%
LB	6	$24.9M	8%
DB	11	$61.5M	20%
ST	2	$8.3M	3%

Top Contracts

Player	Yrs	Total	Gtd	APY	Cap%
T.J. WattDE	3	$123M	$108M	$41.0M	14.7%
DK MetcalfWR	4	$132M	$60.0M	$33.0M	11.8%
Jalen RamseyCB	3	$72.3M	$24.2M	$24.1M	9.4%
Aaron RodgersQB	1	$22.5M	$22.0M	$22.5M	7.5%
Cameron HeywardDT	1	$18.0M	$16.2M	$18.0M	6.0%
Michael PittmanWR	2	$35.0M	$24.0M	$17.5M	5.8%

Pending Free Agents

Player	Free	APY
Jalen RamseyCB	2027	$24.1M
Aaron RodgersQB	2027	$22.5M
Cameron HeywardDT	2027	$18.0M
Alex HighsmithDE	2027	$17.0M
Patrick QueenLB	2027	$13.7M
DeShon ElliottS	2027	$6.3M
Jaylen WarrenRB	2027	$6.0M
Jaquan BriskerS	2027	$5.5M

Roster Profile

avg age 26.5

R1 6Day2 19Day3 30UDFA 13

Homegrown 32 (47%)Acquired 36

Avg experience4.1 yrs

Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)11 / 12

Group	Players	Avg Age
QB	4	29.5
RB	7	24.6
WR	11	25.6
TE	3	25
DL	8	27.6
EDGE	5	26.8
LB	5	26.6
DB	13	26
ST	12	27.5

Injury Report · 5

last report week 19

Pos	Player	Status
DT	Dean Lowry	IR· Groin
TE	Darnell Washington	IR· Concussion
OL	Broderick Jones	IR· Neck
CB	Donte Kent	IR· Ankle
S	DeShon Elliott	IR· Knee

PIT News

20 items

Former Steelers WR signs with NFC East team
A Pittsburgh reunion is off the table for now.
PIT8h
Former Steelers QB signs with CBS as new NFL analyst
The former Steelers quarterback is taking on a new challenge.
PIT10h
Steelers RB Kaleb Johnson is playing for his job
The Steelers’ running back will be fighting for a roster spot all summer.
PIT Kaleb Johnson10h
Steelers rookie Gennings Dunker adjusting to seeing "a lot faster" NFL players
Steelers rookie guard Gennings Dunker hasn't put the pads on for an NFL practice yet, but he's already noticing differences between college and pro football players.
PIT Gennings Dunker11h
Steelers rookie Gennings Dunker adjusting to seeing "a lot faster" NFL players
Steelers rookie guard Gennings Dunker hasn't put the pads on for an NFL practice yet, but he's already noticing differences between college and pro football players.
PIT Gennings Dunker11h
Patrick Queen: Steelers and I have had talks about my contract, "no movement either way"
Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen says he and the team have talked about a new contract, but so far, it's all talk.
PIT Patrick Queen1d
Former Steelers OC Todd Haley fires back at Mike Tomlin comments
The former Steelers OC doesn’t agree with the doubt surrounding Mike Tomlin’s coaching ability.
PIT1d
Steelers rookie labeled player who must produce right away
The Steelers will need good production from their rookie right away.
PIT1d
Eric Ebron reveals reason why Steelers offense fell apart in 2020 season
The former Steelers tight end reveals what went wrong.
PIT2d
Drew Allar makes big strides at Steelers OTAs
The Steelers’ rookie QB already looks noticeably better.
PIT Drew Allar2d
Report: Steelers fired Derius Swinton for "workplace misconduct"
On Friday morning, ESPN reported that the Steelers had fired seniors special-teams assistant Derius Swinton II for a violation of team policy.
PIT2d
Report: Steelers fired Derius Swinton for "workplace misconduct"
On Friday morning, ESPN reported that the Steelers had fired seniors special-teams assistant Derius Swinton II for a violation of team policy.
PIT2d
Steelers' O-line shuffle an attempt to protect Aaron Rodgers
Is Troy Fautanu moving from the right side to his left? More about how flexibility will aid the line and QB.
PIT2d
Another former Steelers WR attempting NFL comeback
Another former Steelers WR is attempting a comeback.
PIT3d
Sources: Steelers fire assistant Swinton after months on job
The Steelers have fired senior special teams assistant Derius Swinton II for a violation of club policy, sources told ESPN.
PIT3d
Steelers mysteriously fire coach after just three-plus months
Mike McCarthy's first Steelers staff has already taken a hit.
PIT3d
Steelers part with special teams assistant coach due to violation of club policy
The Pittsburgh Steelers parted ways with senior assistant special teams coach Derius Swinton II due to a violation of club policy, ESPN reported.
PIT3d
Report: Steelers dismiss senior assistant ST coach Derius Swinton for violating team policy
The Steelers hired Derius Swinton as a senior assistant special teams coach this offseason, but he won't be with the team for the 2026 season.
PIT3d
Report: Steelers dismiss senior assistant ST coach Derius Swinton for violating team policy
The Steelers hired Derius Swinton as a senior assistant special teams coach this offseason, but he won't be with the team for the 2026 season.
PIT3d
Steelers fire senior special teams coach in shock move
Derrius Swinton reportedly violated club policy.
PIT3d